Sports Tipping – How being mildly disinterested helps immeasurably

After pumping out 4 weeks of massive NRL previews, I thought a very brief ditty on a non-NRL topic would be timely. Plus the League of Extraordinary Gentleman keeps suggesting that if I don’t write on a non-NRL subject, I will have to rename TGOS, The Game of Rugby League. Tempting as that may be, I’m going to talk about something else…but not for long.

I’ve learned 3 things about sports tipping and fantasy sports in general.

Firstly, don’t ever play fantasy sports if you lean towards the OCD end of the spectrum. What starts out as a fun hobby quickly becomes an all-encompassing pursuit of fantasy sports perfection involving a mix of constant research, spreadsheets and frequent agonising over trades. It’s just not worth it. Tipping takes much less time for only minimally less reward. Having said that, I do miss watching the NRL with my laptop open, constantly updating the results of my fantasy team in real time. I’m taking some tablets to help me with that though. Not really.

Secondly, tip with your head and not your heart. It seems obvious and most people assume they do it, but a couple of seasons ago I utilised a function of the tipping site, which gave the proportion of times you tipped a team correctly (and incorrectly). The likelihood of my correctly tipping a win or loss for a team was inversely proportional to how much I liked a team. I have a pathological dislike for Manly (sorry Manly fans – it is a lonely boat you row) but had successfully and dispassionately selected a win or loss for Manly correctly in a majority of times (I think it was 80% plus or thereabouts). My tipping for the Cows (quite clearly my favourite NRL team) was riding below 25%. The other thing that caught my attention was the fact that I am exponentially better at tipping EPL than I am at NRL. I haven’t sunk to tipping on the colour of jerseys (although I might be doing better if I did) but I’m definitely less passionate about the EPL than I am about the NRL and this is a boon for my EPL tipping, except when it comes to Newcastle United. Maybe I just like fewer EPL teams.

Thirdly, I have to start listening to my own advice on points 1 and 2. Just saying.

What is sweeter than Jelly Bread?

Oklahoma vs Iowa State - Photo by Max Goldberg - CC-BY-SA-2.0

Oklahoma vs Iowa State – Photo by Max GoldbergCC-BY-2.0

  • March Madness – The first round delivered big time but the Sweet 16 distilled down to the remaining favourites with nary a Cinderella to be seen. Gonzaga doesn’t count anymore. Who do I actually think will win? Does anyone really know? I think Buddy Hield and the Sooners should prevail. In the Steph Curry era, his stock must be rising exponentially.
  • Leicester City – No signs of slipping. 
  • GSW – They play the most exhilarating Basketball and are still on track to beat 72-10 and add another record to their collection.
  • Lauren Jackson – For about 5 or 6 seasons in a row, following the Seattle Storm was compulsory viewing. My favourite Opal ever. I’m going to dedicate a post to her next week.

EPL Tips Match Week 32

Aston Villa vs Chelsea – Chelsea 2-0

Arsenal vs Watford – Arsenal 3-0

Bournemouth vs Man City – Man City 2-1

Norwich vs Newcastle – Norwich 2-1

Stoke City vs Swansea – Stoke 1-0

Sunderland vs West Brom – Sunderland 2-0

West Ham vs Crystal Palace – West Ham 2-1

Liverpool vs Tottenham – Draw 1-1

Leicester vs Southampton – Leicester 2-1

Man U vs Everton – Man U 2-0

BTW I’m going head to head with Lawro (Mark Lawrenson of the BBC) again this year. He has gone and changed his scoring system (a correct result (picking a win, draw or defeat) is worth TEN points and picking an exact score FORTY points).

Week 31

Me – 60 (3 from 10 with 1 perfect score) and Lawro – 80 (5 from 10 with 1 perfect score)

Season so far

Me – 2240 and Lawro – 2190 (Lawro refusing to give up)

NRL Tips Round 5

As mentioned previously, tipping against the spread this year.

Sea Eagles (+4.5) vs Rabbitohs – Rabbitohs

Titans (+12.5) vs Broncos – Titans

Storm vs Knights (+16.5) – Storm

Tigers (+3.5) vs Sharks – Sharks

Cowboys vs Dragons (+12.5) – Cowboys

Roosters (+3.5) vs Warriors – Warriors

Eels vs Panthers (+6.5) – Eels

Bulldogs vs Raiders (+7.5) – Bulldogs

Week 3

2/8

Week 4

4/8

Season so far

13/32

I’ll be lucky if I bat 0.500 this year. I’m glad I don’t gamble, otherwise a much poorer man would be writing this blog. 

Stay Tuned

Stay tuned for the next exciting episode on Thursday, 7 April 2016 titled ‘Lauren Jackson – A tribute’.

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