Being a Cowboys fan, I was equal parts ecstatic and nervous about the recent retention of Jason Taumalolo on a ten year, $10 million contract extension which runs from 2018 until 2027. On the one hand, I was overjoyed that the Cows locked up their best young forward and current Dally M winner to a long-term deal, especially in the wake of the NFL overtures and the departure of Kalyn Ponga (still a bit sad about that one, the League of Extraordinary Gentlemen warned me about that). On the other hand, I’m yet to see a happy ending to a deal of that nature. I’m officially torn.

I thought a comparison with the other long term contract holder DCE was in order, plus some examples from other sports. As with all good conundrums, the findings will be completely subjective. In blog land would you expect anything different?

Other sports

The AFL has a high-profile example in Buddy Franklin’s nine year, $10 million contract with the Sydney Swans which commenced in 2014 ending in 2022, with Franklin at the ripe old age of 36. Franklin was in the prime of his career when the Swans signed him (Hawthorn 2005 – 2013, 182 games and 580 goals) and has provided fair return so far (69 games and 217 goals) including a Grand Final in 2014, Semi Final in 2015 and Grand Final in 2016.

America (of course) is where the real action is in terms of long term contracts. Long term contracts are pretty much the norm these days for marquee players as the following list (courtesy of Wikipedia) attests too:

Ilya Kovalchuk	New Jersey Devils	Ice Hockey	15 years (2010–2025)	$100,000,000
Shea Weber	Nashville Predators	Ice Hockey	14 years (2012–2026)	$110,000,000
Giancarlo Stanton	Miami Marlins	Baseball	13 years (2015–2027)	$325,000,000
Alexander Ovechkin	Washington Capitals	Ice Hockey	13 years (2008–2021)	$124,000,000
Sidney Crosby	Pittsburgh Penguins	Ice Hockey	12 years (2013–2025)	$104,400,000
Donovan McNabb	Philadelphia Eagles	American Football	12 years (2002–2013)	$115,000,000
Todd Helton	Colorado Rockies	Baseball	11 years (2001–2011)	$151,500,000
Robinson Cano	Seattle Mariners	Baseball	10 years (2014–2023)	$240,000,000
Joey Votto	Cincinnati Reds	Baseball	10 years (2014–2023)	$225,000,000
Albert Pujols	Los Angeles Angels	Baseball	10 years (2012–2021)	$240,000,000
Troy Tulowitzki	Colorado Rockies	Baseball	10 years (2011–2020)	$157,750,000
Alex Rodriguez	New York Yankees	Baseball	10 years (2008–2017)	$275,000,000
Michael Vick	Atlanta Falcons	American Football	10 years (2005–2014)	$130,000,000
Alex Rodriguez	Texas Rangers	Baseball	10 years (2001–2010)	$252,000,000
Derek Jeter	New York Yankees	Baseball	10 years (2001–2010)	$189,000,000
Drew Bledsoe	New England Patriots	American Football	10 years (2001–2010)	$103,000,000
Brett Favre	Green Bay Packers	American Football	10 years (2001–2010)	$100,000,000

As you can see, Australia is relatively new to this caper. 

Jason Taumalolo vs DCE

Firstly, some stats:

Jason Taumalolo

Age – 24

Contract – 10 years – $10 million commencing in 2018

Internationals – 12 (9 for NZ and 3 for Tonga)

NRL games – 118 (2010 – 1, 2011 – 3, 2012 – 17, 2013 – 14, 2014 – 25, 2015 – 26, 2016 – 27, 2017 – 5)

Win/Loss – 69-49 (58.47%)

Tries – 24

2014 – 3555m (142.2 per game), Tries – 6, Line breaks – 6, Try assists – 0, Offloads – 4, Tackles – 519 (20.76 per game)

2015 – 4007m (154.1 per game), Tries – 2, Line breaks – 4, Try assists – 0, Offloads – 11, Tackles – 554 (21.31 per game)

2016 – 4454m (165 per game), Tries – 6, Line breaks – 11, Try assists – 0, Offloads – 9, Tackles – 646 (23.93 per game)

2017 – 1171m (234.2 per game), Tries – 1, Line breaks – 2, Try assists – 0, Offloads – 6, Tackles – 137 (27.4 per game)

North Queensland results – 2012 (5^th and Semi-Final), 2013 (8^th and Elimination Final), 2014 (5^th and Semi-Final), 2015 (3^rd and Premiers) and 2016 (4^th and Preliminary Final)

Daly Cherry-Evans

Age – 28

Contract – 8 years – $10 million commencing in 2015

Internationals – 11

State of Origin – 6

NRL games – 153 (2011 – 27, 2012 – 27, 2013 – 27, 2014 – 23, 2015 – 23, 2016 – 19, 2017 – 7)

Win/Loss – 90-62-1 (58.82%)

Tries – 39

2014 – 1330m (57.8 per game), Tries – 3, Line breaks – 8, Try assists – 11, Offloads – 40, Tackles – 481 (20.91 per game)

2015 – 1355m (58.9 per game), Tries – 4, Line breaks – 9, Try assists – 18, Offloads – 21, Tackles – 525 (22.82 per game)

2016 – 1117m (58.8 per game), Tries – 5, Line breaks – 1, Try assists – 16, Offloads – 17, Tackles – 411 (21.63 per game)

2017 – 365m (52.1 per game), Tries – 1, Line breaks – 1, Try assists – 7, Offloads – 4, Tackles – 186 (26.6 per game)

Manly Warringah Sea Eagles results – 2011 (2^nd and Premiers), 2012 (4^th and Preliminary Final), 2013 (4^th and Grand Final), 2014 (2^nd and Semi Final), 2015 (9^th), 2016 (13^th).

Pros and Cons

Pros

Impact – Jason Taumalolo is a once in a generation player. Rugby League is predominantly a momentum game. If the defensive line is retreating and under fatigue the game becomes much more exciting and unpredictable. Johnathan Thurston, Jake Granville, Michael Morgan and Lachlan Coote have suddenly got something to work with. Taumalolo bends the line almost every time he carries the ball. He is without a doubt the best in the game at what he does and the Dally M medal reflects this.

DCE on the other hand spent his early days in the side to equal effect, however, once Kieran Foran left the side along with the core of the premiership winning Sea Eagles, returns have been poor. He is still a good half but questions abound. Unfortunately, the form of the side correlates directly with his contract commencement. It is only year 3 of an 8-year deal but the pressure is mounting and early returns are not good. The Sea Eagles are playing better than the past two season though.

Youth – Taumalolo is still a young buck on a great side. He has risen from dynamic talent to superstar and while it hasn’t been a meteoric rise, because he started in first grade at such a young age, he has the advantage of youth while realistically envisaging peak performance for another 5-6 years at least.

DCE started his mega deal at age 26 so not much is different in that regard. He has the added advantage of playing in the halves. Halves have traditionally had a longer shelf life in the game than forwards.

Certainty – The Cowboys now have certainty around JT 2.0’s contract. The bi-annual distraction of other clubs circling around him or the threat of him trying the NFL evaporates overnight. They can also plan further ahead regarding future contracts.

Ditto for DCE.

Behaviour – Both players have been well behaved to be fair. DCE’s reputation took a battering north of the border when he backed out of the Titans deal but he didn’t do anything illegal. Taumalolo’s reputation has only been besmirched by the egg throwing incident but precious little else.

Cons

Morale of the team – With such a big proportion of the salary cap gone to both JTs it is inevitable that some players will have to find a job elsewhere in the near future. This was one of the big downsides of DCEs deal, the impact on existing team mates. The Cows will have to weather this storm and either retain players on lower values, promote from within or nab good value free agents looking for game time elsewhere. Paul Green will have to monitor morale in the meantime.

Risk of injury – This is a big one. The Cowboys are taking on a massive risk guaranteeing payment for a player in a contact sport over so many years. Taumalolo has an outstanding injury record but his style will eventually lend itself to injury and the NRL is one of the hardest contact sports in the World to play. This could end very badly.

DCE’s contract has the same risk but as mentioned above, halves generally accrue less collateral damage over the years.

Length of contract – Just the sheer length of this deal means that Taumalolo will be 34 by the end of it. Many forwards don’t last that long in the game. The Cowboys are hoping that his performance doesn’t dramatically tail off over the final years of the deal but that is the big risk. Similar with DCE.

Salary cap – Initially it is a big chunk of their salary cap on one player. Over time as the salary cap presumably increases it will actually become an advantage to the Cowboys.

Verdict

Ten years is a long time in the NRL and early returns obviously favour Taumalolo over DCE but both deals will have to be judged on their merits in hindsight.

Stay Tuned

Next exciting episode will be on Wednesday, 3 May 2017 titled ‘Where is the next Moneyball for small market teams like the Brewers?’.